Listen again · In Conversation
Can Brazil Keep Amazon Deforestation Falling? October 17, 2026 · 8:21 · With Maya, Alex, and Emma
Alex is our station journalist, and Emma is our station columnist. Our question is: what is behind Brazil’s reported fall in Amazon deforestation, and can that fall continue as political priorities change?
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Maya You’re listening to Slow English FM. This is our round table, where we look at one subject from several angles in clear English. Welcome, and thanks for listening wherever you are. I’m Maya. Alex is our station journalist, and Emma is our station columnist. Our question is: what is behind Brazil’s reported fall in Amazon deforestation, and can that fall continue as political priorities change? Alex, start with the new figures. What do they tell us? Alex Brazil’s space research agency, INPE, estimates that 3,335 square kilometres of Amazon forest were cleared in the year ending in July 2026. That is about 42 percent less than in the previous year. Al Jazeera reports that this is the lowest annual figure since records began in 1988. The decline is striking. But it is important to understand what the number measures before we decide what it means. Maya So, what does Brazil count as deforestation here? Alex INPE measures forest change using satellites through a system called PRODES. It produces annual estimates for Brazil’s biomes, or large natural regions. For this measure, the year runs from August to July. PRODES mainly counts the complete removal of primary forest cover by clear-cutting. It also includes certain cases where progressive damage has caused the forest canopy to be lost completely. So the figure is not a count of every kind of harm to the forest. Maya Emma, take that last point further. What might the headline number leave out? Emma The key distinction is between clearing forest and damaging forest that is still standing. A report by The Associated Press, published by Newsday, says damage from wildfires, logging and drought affects about 40 percent of the Amazon. It also says this kind of degradation has outpaced clear-cutting in recent years. That estimate needs care: the article does not explain its method. But it tells us that a lower clear-cutting figure is not the same as saying the whole forest is safe or healthy. Maya Alex, the fall has continued over several years. What changes in policy are linked to it? Alex Al Jazeera reports that deforestation has fallen each year since 2022 and is down 71.2 percent over four years. It cites AFP, which links the fall to more monitoring and tougher penalties for illegal logging. That is a reported explanation, not proof that enforcement alone caused the change. The AP report also describes a policy change: Brazil revived a national action plan for the Legal Amazon in 2023. The plan is known by its Portuguese initials, PPCDAm. Maya Emma, what does that plan actually do? Emma The AP report describes four parts. One is stronger monitoring and enforcement. Another is support for a sustainable economy. The plan also covers protected areas and decisions about public forests that have not been assigned to a particular use. Its fourth part uses rules and financial incentives to discourage forest loss. In other words, the plan is not only about sending officers into the forest. It also addresses how land is managed and how economic activity is shaped. Maya Alex, give us a concrete example of enforcement, and separate what is in place from what is still a proposal. Alex According to the AP report, the government restored sanctions for illegal forest clearing detected by satellites. The report says that practice had been halted under Jair Bolsonaro, who was president before Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. A separate measure is only described as a proposal: preventing properties with illegal deforestation from receiving bank loans. That difference matters. A proposal may show the direction of policy, but it is not the same as a rule already in force. Maya Emma, is there a reason to look beyond the national total, too? Emma Yes. Forest loss does not have to move in the same direction in every place. INPE’s earlier estimate for the year ending in July 2025 was 5,796 square kilometres, down 11.08 percent from the previous year. The agency said eight of the nine states in the Legal Amazon had declines. That was a useful sign of broad change, but not a fall in every state. A national number can hide local differences. Maya And now the issue is also political. The AP report points to a presidential runoff on October 25 between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Alex, what is at stake in that comparison? Alex The AP report says the candidates offer sharply different approaches to the rainforest. It reports that climate and conservation experts warn a victory for Bolsonaro could reverse policies aimed at reducing deforestation. That is a warning about a possible outcome, not a claim that a reversal has happened. The same report says both candidates have pledged to end illegal deforestation. Bolsonaro has pledged to do so by 2029, one year before Brazil’s current target, according to the report. Maya Emma, if both candidates make that pledge, what should listeners pay attention to? Emma The pledge is one part of the picture. The other is whether the tools behind the recent fall continue: monitoring, penalties, and the wider action plan. The evidence we have shows that the latest estimate is lower, and that the government restored parts of its enforcement approach. It does not tell us what a future government will do, or whether the same pace of decline will last. So I would treat the election as a test of policy continuity, not as a simple prediction about the next set of figures. Maya Alex, one last clarification. Can we say that the record low proves the plan worked? Alex No. We can say the forest-clearance estimate fell sharply, and that the decline followed the return of the action plan and stronger enforcement measures. AFP, as cited by Al Jazeera, links the decrease to monitoring and penalties. But the figures alone do not show how much each policy contributed. They also do not cover every kind of forest damage. The careful conclusion is that Brazil has made major progress on measured clearing, while the causes and durability of that progress remain open questions. Maya That is the central balance. Alex explained what the satellite figures measure and what they cannot prove. Emma looked at the wider forest damage, the policy tools and the political test ahead. A record fall is important, but whether it continues remains uncertain. Thanks for joining us on Slow English FM.
